How Biden beat Bernie: A Demographics POV
Preface: This is the point-of-view of an urban, millennial voter in Massachusetts; the home state of Senator Liz Warren and a state that appeared Bernie-favorable to take right before the Super Tuesday primaries.
1 — The Silent Majority
The makeshift convention hall of the 2017 Massachusetts Democratic Conference was a wake up call for the revolution crew. We were young, loud, and disillusioned by a booming of “nays” to proposed bill amendments. For our green Boston squad’s progressive agendas on issues like affordable housing and more state committee members, it was clear there was a hidden dichotomy in our super blue state.
In the city we are active and hyper to enact change. Just as we tend to share positive media content about ourselves for signal boosts, we share favorable content about our political alignments.
However, throughout Massachusetts’s 14 counties resides a silent majority of representatives with more conservative stances.
Jumping forward to Super Tuesday again this majority represented themselves:
But things were looking so good for the Bernie crew. What happened?
Consuming positive content can lead to an illusion of taking charge, which, for some younger voters, fulfills their quota. In contrast, small metro and older voters are less vocal in the media, but more politically active. For these hidden representatives it’s a favorable setting when opponents enjoy a state of complacency.
The result is a surprise turnaround that isn’t really all that surprising.
Young voter turnout was lower than last election nationwide, hitting a paltry 16% in Massachusetts, where it was 19% in 2016. For shame.
Primary results in, Biden walks away with an overwhelming majority. Bernie suspended his campaign. Sadly, this scenario is wholly believable.
2 — We love our dynasties
Humans enjoy their comforts, and the threat of change is greater to those with more stake in the game. Older generations have vested interests in the children, finances, and housing, to preserve in the form of the status quo.
Piggybacking on these comforts comes a tendency for reelecting subpar candidates. We see low satisfaction levels with incumbents that still manage to stay in office. Biden, despite his vast shortcomings, represents the Obama era, a time the generations are familiar with, and the people want someone who is well vetted with the system, that WASPy dude.
Obiter Dictum — This status quo mentality contributes largely to why it’s such a struggle for women to win the presidency, or break into any male dominated field as a professional, frankly. We will find any source of status quo disruption if one exists, which we will subconsciously stifle to retain our facades of security. But that’s an article for another day.
In contrast, millennials are growing up on a postmodern movement as iconoclasts, apathetically denunciating ideologies; read, nihilists. There is less to lose and more to gain with a new, radical candidate. The cold status quo is abhorrent, unappealing. But with apathy comes no votes. So 16% it is.
3 — Negative Bipartisanship
So, when a fired up Bernie rides in, calling for reforms like complete health system overhauls, rent control, free college etc., he feels like less of a democrat and more of a threat. With the voters left to respond, hard alternatives become the sole choice.
But the second threat for democrats is the dire need to eject Trump.
Enter negative bipartisanship. This is where the fear of an unfavorable candidate winning becomes the sole political drive.
“As parties become more ideologically different you get locked in place by negative partisanship. It becomes more important to stop the other party than to get an ideal candidate. Only in a time of prevalent negative bipartisanship can a Trump win [against a Hilary].”
Some republicans were so morally opposed to seeing Hilary in office, they voted in an abysmal president to keep her out (remember Mitt Romney, now scolded RINO?). The evidence the Democrats are handling this concern was apparent as the most “risky” candidates were very clearly whittled down. Yang, Warren, Sanders, even Bloomberg and Buttigieg, none appeared safe enough candidates to beat out Trump, none except safe old Biden.
4 — Identity Politics
A negative bipartisanship lockdown results in a strange flavor of identity politics in a broad sense. This is the area where affiliations to our social circle manifest into individual identification. A bit of groupthink is quite normal, evolved, and human, but how far should it go?
Picking up behaviors aligned with an identity class has been proven very helpful in some cases (like the civil rights movement) and sometimes maybe less so (consumerist reduction of character into brands and labels).
“Belinda, have you read Seed Weekly today? They list the Top 5 Hottest Telephone Wires to meet other polygreen-crested pygmy finches like ourselves!”
In this wild and crazy Information Age, however we can nest ourselves amongst the twigs and chipotle napkins of our social comforts.
Just as dynasties and negative bipartisanships preserve and reproduce political order, identity politics preserves social order.
Consider middle-aged democrat Karen, mother of 3, who wants only for her children to grow up in a nation away from Trump’s influence. She’s going to vote for her version of the most viable candidate to usurp the Orange One. Economically, people in her tupperware circle are telling her that Biden seems the most viable. How will she vote?
Wrap Up
And here we have our recipe for a Anti-Progressive Majority
- 16% young voter turnout
- 1 oz. middle-aged voter majority with a dynastic tendency
- Two cups negative bipartisanship
- A sprig of Identity Politics
Mix it all in a melting pot of American values and there we have our Biden cake. Ah, comfort food.
The next question the pursed media asks is whether negative partisanship will be as pressing in this election for democrats as it was in the last for republicans; Or America will be seeing another 4 years of Orange?
To end on a more positive note: as huge demographic shifts propagate from changing birth rates, a less white America will invariably adopt some unprecedented new characteristics in the coming decades.
To be seen.
